Nonaligned producers are proceeding further on a record-breaking streak. In August, liquids output by these countries, grouped together as non-Opec-plus, amounted to 52.4 million barrels per day excluding refining gains, a preliminary assessment shows. This is a new monthly record and the first time output by non-Opec-plus surpassed the 52 million b/d threshold. Compared to July, August’s result represents a 640,000 b/d improvement, while versus August 2024, it is 1.3 million b/d higher. Crude output by non-Opec-plus was 36.7 million b/d — also a record — an increase of 330,000 b/d over July and 1.1 million b/d over August 2024.
Total liquids output by nonaligned producers is forecast at 51.81 million b/d this year, an increase of 1.3 million b/d over 2024 and some 500,000 b/d more than the forecast global demand growth for the year. Next year’s growth in liquids output is expected to come in a bit higher at 1.38 million b/d to 53.19 million b/d as countries like the US, Canada, Brazil and Guyana continue their upward momentum.
Brazil is enjoying a surge in crude output. Official data shows that production amounted to 3.95 million b/d in July, a 200,000 b/d gain on June and a new record. August is expected to improve on this and push the country over 4 million b/d. To wit, crude exports from Brazil last month were a record 2.36 million b/d, according to Kpler, up 110,000 b/d over July, and the ship tracker is forecasting that September loadings will surpass 2.5 million b/d.
