The Trump administration’s repeated sanctions and tariff threats over India's Russian crude imports have left Indian refiners facing more uncertainty than at any time in recent memory. The pattern since March 2022 of India buying what is now more than a third of its crude oil requirements from Russia — safely navigating several rounds of EU and US sanctions — was briefly upended by Washington's early-August pledge to double tariffs on India to 50% from Aug. 27 over the imports, which sent traders scrambling for alternative barrels. Then, just as the US' "secondary tariffs" took effect, and with Russian flows starting to return to normal, Washington labeled India a "profiteer" from Russia's war in Ukraine and threatened additional measures. The continued uncertainty is changing the face of Russian oil supplies to India, with a growing divide between private and state refiners. Publicly, Indian state and corporate officials say they will continue buying Russian crude as long as prices remain competitive. But behind the scenes, uncertainty is palpable. In a bid to further deprive Moscow of cash for its war effort, Washington has now urged the EU to impose its own 100% tariffs on India if it keeps buying Russian crude, levies the US has promised to match. It's not clear if the EU will take such measures, but two senior refining sources said combined US-EU tariffs on that scale would indeed shut down Indian purchases of Russian oil. The mere prospect has made state-run refiners' efforts to scour the market for spot cargoes from the US, West Africa, Latin America and the Mideast Gulf even more urgent. Compounding the problem for state players is neighboring China, which has muscled into Indian territory amid the tariff upheaval, adding medium, sour Urals — an Indian staple — to its diet of primarily light Eastern Siberia–Pacific Ocean crude from Russia.