Centre-left has rallied but uproar over cost of living and oil fund investment in Israel means outcome is hard to predict

Norway goes to the polls on Monday after an unusually close-fought and polarised election dominated by the cost of living, wealth taxes, oil fund investment in Israel and relations with Donald Trump.

There has been a surge in support for the populist rightwing Progress party led by Sylvi Listhaug, in what has been described by some as “the Maga-fication” of Norwegian politics. In the event of a rightwing victory, Listhaug could become prime minister.

But according to polls, the most probable result is a narrow win for the centre-left, meaning a likely continuation of the minority Labour government led by Jonas Gahr Støre, who has been prime minister since 2021, with the former Nato secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg, one of Norway’s most popular politicians, as finance minister.

If, however, Labour does win they could face drawn out negotiations with smaller leftwing parties, particularly over oil fund investment in Israel, which has led to Stoltenberg coming under heavy scrutiny in recent weeks.