CNN’s chief data analyst Harry Enten on Tuesday declared that Democrats are “heavily favored” to win this year’s New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial elections, results that suggest a positive outcome for the party in the 2026 midterms.
“I would say that these two races are the biggest flashing red siren signs for Republicans,” said Enten in a segment with CNN’s Kate Bolduan.
With Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) ineligible to run for a consecutive term, ex-Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) has a 94% chance to defeat Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R) to become the first woman governor in the state’s history, per an average of Kalshi and Polymarket prediction market figures.
And in New Jersey, where incumbent Gov. Phil Murphy (D) is unable to serve a third-straight term, Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.) has an 89% chance to be victorious over former state Rep. Jack Ciattarelli (R).
Enten noted that the Democrats’ polling leads in both states are in a “better position” than they were back in 2021 before Bolduan asked why people nationwide should care about the races.
