Troubles at UK statistics body are muddying economic picture for Treasury and spending watchdog, sources warn
Deep problems at the UK’s statistics agency with the quality of its data are piling pressure on officials in the run-up to the autumn budget, sources have told the Guardian.
Staff at the Treasury and its independent spending watchdog are struggling to get a clear picture of the economy because of troubles at the Office for National Statistics (ONS) with producing reliable numbers.
Such is the concern that insiders at the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) believe it may have to again highlight “significant uncertainty” in its forecasts because of poor official data, as it did publicly in March. Economists have also warned that the problems risk the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, making tax and spending “missteps”.
The OBR forecasts are key to the budget process, as they are used to judge the headroom the chancellor has against her self-imposed fiscal rules, and form the basis for her tax and spending decisions. Its work is also closely watched by financial markets. This can affect the cost of borrowing the government needs to help fund public services.
