The Issue
TotalEnergies has a big — and growing — presence in the US power sector. Taking advantage of generous tax credits introduced under the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), the French major has more than doubled its US net power capacity over the past two years, rising to 5.6 gigawatts at the end of the second quarter. The company's installed gross renewable capacity in the US rose by around 66% over the same period to 9.3 GW, accounting for almost one-third of its global gross installed renewables portfolio. This growth is in line with the company’s plans for the US to account for around 30% of its 100 terawatt hour net production target for 2030, inclusive of gas-fired power. However, President Trump’s antagonism toward renewables raises big questions about the future of Total’s US power expansion strategy, with some early forecasts seeing Trump's policies having a negative impact on broader US wind and solar deployment plans.
'Safe Harbor' Safety Net?
Significant ink has been spilled regarding the negative impacts Trump’s rollback of Biden administration renewable-friendly policies will likely have on the pace of the renewables build out in the US. The passage of OBBBA on Jul. 4 narrowed the eligibility window for key incentives — including a 30% investment tax credit on solar and wind construction costs and a production tax credit of up to 3¢ per kilowatt hour. It also sunset those tax credits six years earlier than was the case under the Biden-era IRA, requiring wind and solar projects to either start construction by Jul. 4, 2026 or come on line before the end of 2027.
