Keir Starmer downplays warnings that taxes will have to be raised in autumn

PM says he doesn’t recognise some figures in independent forecast that projects £51bn shortfall in public finances

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Keir Starmer has sought to play down warnings that the government will be forced to raise taxes this autumn and said some of the figures being circulated “are not ones I recognise”.

The prime minister was responding to forecasts from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), which projected a shortfall of up to £51bn in the public finances, given a number of factors had knocked the chancellor’s plans to stay within Whitehall spending limits, including higher debt interest payments and U-turns on welfare spending cuts.

NIESR said “moderate but sustained” tax rises would be needed in the autumn budget for Rachel Reeves to overcome the deficit of £41.2bn and then restore a near £10bn buffer in the current budget or be forced to use harsh cost-cutting measures in the autumn statement.