Finance chief says growth in second half of financial year will be more moderate with tapering of ‘rush shipments’ earlier prompted by US tariffs

Hong Kong is on track to return to an operating account surplus for the 2025-26 financial year, with the result largely fuelled by a surge in stamp duty income from the city’s robust stock market performance, the finance chief has said.

Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po made his prediction of a surplus – set to occur a year earlier than previously estimated – on Sunday, while cautioning that economic growth in the second half of the year would be less pronounced than in the first, without the export surge driven by “rush shipments” ahead of renewed US tariffs.

“For stamp duty, we expect to gain around HK$130 million [US$16.5 million] for every HK$100 billion of transactions because some transactions, such as the exchange-traded products, are exempt from stamp duty,” he told a radio programme.

The Hang Seng Index has recorded an increase of more than 25 per cent so far this year. The average daily turnover in the stock market for the first half of the year was around $240 billion, an increase of 120 per cent year on year.