Pakistan central bank likely to cut interest rate at July 30 monetary policy meeting — poll

Pakistan central bank likely to cut interest rate at July 30 monetary policy meeting — poll

KARACHI: A majority of financial market participants expect Pakistan’s central bank to cut its key interest rate by 50 to 100 basis points at its upcoming Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on July 30, according to a new poll by Topline Securities published this week.

The findings reflect growing market confidence that declining inflation and easing global oil prices have created space for monetary easing. In its last meeting, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) kept the policy rate unchanged at 11 percent, citing uncertainty over the federal budget and regional tensions in the Middle East. This time, a stronger consensus appears to be building toward a rate cut.

In the latest survey, 56 percent of participants said they expect a 50–100 bps cut, compared to 44 percent in the previous poll, while 37 percent now expect no change, down from 56 percent in the last round.

Topline’s own forecast aligns with the consensus: the brokerage expects a 50 bps cut, noting that real interest rates remain elevated relative to historical averages.