Global oil demand rose 1 million barrels per day on the year in June, reflecting seasonal expectations boosted by summer travel in the Northern Hemisphere, more power generation in the south and robust consumption across Asia. But while headline numbers show strength, underlying growth is softening in trade-sensitive economies impacted by US tariffs and inflationary pressures. The current market is being shaped by complex, shifting forces, not least of all mounting uncertainty about how the US' aggressive trade policy will impact global business activity.