Changes to welfare bill likely to win over moderates, but PM’s reputation for embracing tough reforms damaged

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After his third U-turn this month, Keir Starmer will hope he has done enough to avoid a humiliating first Commons defeat as prime minister on Tuesday, even if he is now a diminished figure in front of his party and the country.

Over Wednesday night and Thursday, Starmer’s chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney, and the deputy PM, Angela Rayner, sat down with leading rebels and agreed a series of changes to the government’s welfare bill that ministers hope will be enough to get it over the line.

Those changes are likely to be significant enough to win over the support of dozens of moderates who had signed an amendment that would have put the bill on hold indefinitely. But they have damaged the prime minister’s reputation for embracing tough reforms, and his chancellor’s reputation for fiscal probity.