If job creation is robust and debt is contained, annual economic growth of around 4 per cent is feasible for the 2026-30 period, former economic official Xu Lin says
A former senior economic planner has called for China’s annual growth target to be lowered for the next five years, factoring in the likelihood of a protracted rivalry with the United States and the need to solve deep-rooted structural problems in China.
Xu Lin, who helped draft Beijing’s five-year plan for decades while an official at the National Development and Reform Commission, made the comments as the world’s second-largest economy is increasingly relying on economic planning for continued growth.
Compared with some market estimates of around 4.5 per cent annual growth from 2026-30, he said the potential growth rate and growth target figure should be around 4 per cent in the next five to 10 years, owing to China’s shrinking population, its falling savings and production rate, and other headwinds.
“An annual 4 per cent GDP growth would be very good if employment can be expanded and the debt ratio is controlled,” said Xu, who is now academic director of the Pangoal Institution, a Beijing-based think tank, and also chairman of China-US Green Fund.
