Think tanks say the tax might rise by 7.5 percent if the ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ does not pass, rejecting Trump’s claims.

US President Donald Trump has been sounding an alarm: if Congress doesn’t pass his tax and spending bill, Americans will be forced to pay much higher taxes.

Referring to his wide-ranging tax and spending legislation called the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” Trump said in a June 5 Truth Social post, “If this bill doesn’t pass, there will be a 68% tax increase.”

Trump cited the same figure in May 25 comments to reporters and during a May 30 news conference.

However, independent analyses of the controversial bill – which would extend the 2017 tax cuts that are slated to expire later this year – found that Trump’s estimate is about 10 times bigger than the expected increase would be if the cuts expire.