Business leaders are walking back recessionary expectations for the U.S. that initially spiked in the aftermath of President Donald Trump’s tariff announcement, according to data released Monday.
Less than 30% of CEOs forecast either a mild or severe recession over the next six months, per Chief Executive Group’s survey of more than 270 taken last week. That’s down from 46% who said the same in May and 62% in April.
The share of CEOs polled this month who said they expect some level of growth in the U.S. economy also shot up above 40%. That’s nearly double from the 23% who gave the same prediction in April.
Expectations for flat economic growth have surged in recent months, rising above 30% from 15% in April. That comes as some market participants question if “stagflation” — a term used to described an environment with stagnating economic growth and sticky inflation — could be on the horizon.
Chief Executive’s latest data reflects a shifting outlook among corporate America’s leaders as they follow the evolving policy around Trump’s tariffs. Many large companies have left their earnings outlooks unchanged, citing the uncertainty around what the president’s final trade policy will and will not include.
