Last weekend’s decision by Opec-plus to make another large output increase in July has fueled speculation over whether the alliance will try to squeeze what was originally an 18-month program to boost production by 2.5 million barrels per day into much less time. Although oil prices are down 12% since the start of the year, some Opec-plus producers such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are keen to crank up supplies while demand is brisk and spot prices are strong, according to sources familiar with the producer group's discussions. But other members favor a more measured pace of returning barrels to the market. After three expedited increases of 411,000 b/d — each the equivalent of three monthly 137,000 b/d increments under the original plan — Opec-plus has eight monthly increments of 137,000 b/d remaining in the unwinding schedule, or a total of 1.1 million b/d. If Opec-plus were to revert to the smaller monthly increases from August, the group would complete its full unwinding by March 2026. If the eight continue with accelerated unwinding at their current pace, the full volume would be returned by October this year. At stake is a 2.2 million tranche of "voluntary" production cuts by eight key members, plus a 300,000 b/d quota increase for the UAE. Opec-plus also has 3.66 million b/d of other production cuts in place, which currently run to end-2026.